The State Council of China recently released the 15th Five-Year Carbon Peaking Action Plan, outlining a roadmap for carbon peaking through the Action Plan period.
It sets two 2030 targets: a 17% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP from 2025 levels, and a 25% share for non-fossil energy, to ensure carbon peaking on schedule.
Reaching these goals demands both technological advances and institutional reforms. Unresolved issues such as credible emissions accounting and fair cost-sharing for the low-carbon transition will determine the course of future energy conservation and decarbonisation.
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development was also released this month by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA). The separate policy document lays out a roadmap for the country’s renewable energy development for 2026–2030. You can read about the details of that plan, including specific targets for new energy development by technology, on PV Tech.
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Energy structure: from coal‑dominant to non‑fossil fuel‑led
On 9 July 2026, the State Council officially released the 15th Five‑Year Carbon Peaking Action Plan.
As the final five‑year blueprint for meeting the 2030 peaking commitment, the Action Plan identifies the 2026–2030 period as both critical and challenging. It sets out systematic measures on energy transition, sectoral emission cuts, and institutional innovation to lay a solid foundation for both the peaking goal and long‑term carbon neutrality.
Liu Huiwen, a researcher at China First Financial Daily, said the Action Plan establishes a framework for the green transition, with “replacing” existing stock capacity and “expanding” new growth as its central thread.
The Action Plan’s general requirements call for steadily peaking coal and oil consumption, effectively capping further growth in fossil fuel use. It also sets two core targets: a 17% reduction in CO₂ per unit of GDP by 2030 from 2025 levels, and a 25% share for non‑fossil energy.
Liu noted that, signalling a determined push for clean energy expansion, these align with the binding green‑development targets in the 15th Five‑Year Plan outline, putting the energy transition on a faster track.
On accelerating energy restructuring, the Action Plan outlines four priorities. First, scaling up non‑fossil energy development. By 2030, wind and solar installed capacity should exceed 2.8 billion kilowatts (2,800GW), conventional hydropower reach about 410 million kilowatts, and nuclear power in operation reach about 110 million kilowatts.
Second, boosting the grid’s capacity to absorb renewables. By 2030, pumped storage should reach about 160 million kilowatts, new energy storage target 300 million kilowatts, virtual power plant peak regulation exceed 50 million kilowatts, and demand response cover more than 5% of peak load.
Third, pushing forward large-scale clean substitution of coal. Fourth, refining the oil and gas consumption structure. Together, these four tasks expand clean energy supply while steadily reducing fossil fuel stock.
To address the twin bottlenecks of renewable power consumption and coal replacement, the Action Plan launches two flagship projects, which are inter-provincial power sharing and clean coal substitution.
The first builds new transmission corridors to bridge the geographic gap between generation bases and load centres, while the second uses electrification and retrofits to shift coal from a primary fuel to a backup, supportive and regulating energy source. Together, they resolve the dual issues of stranded renewable power and slow coal reduction, underpinning the broader energy restructuring.
The Action Plan also promotes direct green power supply, encouraging zero-carbon parks, factories and industrial users to access renewable electricity directly, further expanding green power consumption channels.
Key industrial sectors: retrofitting old industries, cultivating new ones
To advance the green and low-carbon industrial transition, the Action Plan balances upgrading established industries with scaling up emerging green sectors.
On one side, it mandates energy-saving and decarbonisation retrofits for high-carbon sectors such as steel, electrolytic aluminium, cement, flat glass, petrochemicals and chemicals, while phasing out outdated capacity and equipment. On the other side, it accelerates the development of emerging industries, including hydrogen, green fuels, carbon management services, and digital-intelligent low-carbon technologies.
It also promotes high-standard zero-carbon parks and factories, and explicitly pushes for the green, low-carbon transformation of computing infrastructure and the broader use of circular economy measures for emission reduction.
The Action Plan sets clear targets for the 2026–2030 period: about 100 national-level zero-carbon industrial parks and 500 zero-carbon factories, alongside expanded direct green power supply and full decarbonisation of computing infrastructure. Computing power is set to become one of the fastest-growing drivers of electricity demand in the digital era.
National Energy Administration data show computing centres consumed 170 billion kWh in 2025. Annual power use for computing is expected to rise by more than 100 billion kWh each year through the 15th Five-Year Plan period, reaching 800 billion kWh by 2030—about 6% of total national electricity consumption. The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence has turned computing power from a digital infrastructure asset into a major energy consumer.
In response, the Action Plan proposes a core principle of coordinating computing infrastructure with renewable energy deployment. For new capacity, it requires newly built facilities to source most of their power from non-fossil energy. It mandates upgrades for substandard facilities and orderly phase-out of outdated, inefficient equipment.
Chai Qimin, director of the strategic planning research department at the National Centre for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, said the 2026 rollout of dual controls over carbon emissions is reshaping the underlying logic of China’s economic and social development, marking the start of a carbon-reduction-centred era.
The Action Plan requires strict oversight of “dual‑high” (energy‑intensive and high‑emission) projects. All new, renovated or expanded projects must offset emissions equivalent to or below their projected output. It also pushes for deep green and low‑carbon upgrades across key sectors, with targeted measures for construction and transport. In construction, all new urban buildings must meet green standards, with direct carbon emissions per square metre down 3% over the 15th Five‑Year period. The Action Plan also prioritises building‑integrated PV, along with low‑ and zero‑carbon heating, cooling and green lighting.
The transport initiative focuses on zero‑carbon freight corridors on national highways and major ordinary roads, while also advancing zero‑carbon waterways. By 2030, new energy vehicles are targeted to account for 30% of the national fleet and 25% of commercial transport, backed by expanded charging, battery‑swap and green fuel infrastructure.
Road freight decarbonisation faces two hurdles: scarce clean refuelling facilities and limited large‑scale deployment of new energy heavy trucks. The Action Plan tackles these with a dual approach—replacement measures phase out ageing commercial vehicles and non-road machinery, while expansion measures support mass adoption of electric heavy trucks and build out refuelling networks for electricity, battery swapping, green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol.
For shipping, the Action Plan promotes a diverse mix of low‑carbon vessels powered by electricity, LNG, biodiesel and green methanol, reflecting a pragmatic multi‑energy approach. Beyond industry and transport, it also sets out energy‑saving and carbon‑reduction actions for public institutions and develops measures to enhance ecosystem carbon sinks, forming a coordinated cross‑sector framework for green transition.
Innovative market mechanisms
To enhance supportive measures, the Action Plan upgrades existing laws, regulations, standards and institutional frameworks. This includes revising the Energy Conservation Law, Renewable Energy Law and public institution energy regulations; refining carbon peaking and neutrality standards, green finance criteria and disclosure rules; adjusting pricing policies; and updating greenhouse gas emission factors, annual reporting systems at national and provincial levels, and green certificate and power trading mechanisms.
Alongside these revisions, the Action Plan introduces new institutional mechanisms under a “capacity expansion” strategy. These include a unified product carbon labelling system, dynamic monitoring and early‑warning platforms for key data, generation‑side capacity compensation, demand‑response pricing that reflects regulation capability, and a national carbon data management system and carbon footprint database.
A dedicated section in the Action Plan highlights foundational capacity‑building initiatives. The national carbon data system will break cross‑sector silos to improve timeliness and accuracy, while the domestic emission factor database will enhance localised accounting and eliminate biases from past reliance on foreign data.
For implementation, the Action Plan outlines a coordinated roadmap that aligns top-down governance with public participation and international engagement, covering local accountability, nationwide green campaigns, and global cooperation.
Chai Qimin said policy and finance are critical enablers. To generate firm demand for green products, policy should shift from cost subsidies to market creation through tiered green‑material tariffs or mandatory renewable consumption quotas.
Transition finance also plays a key role. Sustainability‑linked loans and transition bonds tie financing costs to verified carbon cuts, unlocking low‑cost capital for industrial transformation. Additional policy vehicles, including a national low‑carbon transition fund that can provide long‑term support for R&D and market incubation.
Notably, the Action Plan also addresses international cooperation, calling for expanded green investment, trade partnerships and Green Silk Road initiatives within existing multilateral frameworks, to build an open and mutually beneficial global green cooperation network.
